25 January 2007

Be Not Afraid

Hillary Clinton will not be president in 2008.

Reasons:

1. She is running against history. I frankly think that the nation is ready for a woman president, but there are two bigger obstacles.
  • I do not remember a time when the (non-incumbent) frontrunner two years out remained the front-runner into the election. She is running right now with a big target on her back. Everyone behind her takes shots at her.
  • More importantly, only two sitting U S Senators have ever been elected president, and only one of those post WW2. Hillary Clinton is no John Kennedy. Too much of a record to try and run away from, and no administrative experience.
2. The Left is Balkanized. Wisconsin, where I now live, is a right of center state. If you back out the People's Republic of Madison and it's left wing voting record, I bet the place would be indistinguishable from Montana politcally. In 2004, they managed to elect a left of center Democratic governer, and a large part of the reason was that the Libertarian Ed Thompson got 10.5% of the vote. The Democrat Doyle only won by 3.7%, so if there had not been a Libertarian candidate, the Dems would have needed 1/3 of those voters to break even, which I consider unlikely. (Assuming the Libertarian voters would have voted at all, which I think highly likely.)

In other words, by splitting the right of center vote, the conservatives gave the election to the Democrats. One can argue the the Greens did the same thing to Al Gore in 2000.

If the Ned Lamont / Joe Lieberman situation from 2006 is any indication, the left would rather be right than win. And nationally, the right would rather have a barely palatable victory than a loss on ideological grounds. (Though after hearing Tom Tancredo on Fox & Friends saying that President Bush had "worked so hard to get" a Democratically controlled Congress, maybe I am wrong.)

Hillary will have to run hard to the left to be acceptable to the Daily Koss left, and that will expose her to scrutiny by the vast center who will then not vote for her in the general election. And I do not think that she has the guts or the right history to do a Sister Soljah moment, even if she has the smarts.

So I think that the politically aware probably know the name of the next president, but Hillary is not going to be it.

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